Why Stephen Curry, not James Harden, is this year's NBA MVP

The rare MBA in the NBA, Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey not only embraces inflammatory statements, he offers them up with gusto. The inventor of the revered MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference and driving force behind the new wave of analytical player evaluation, Morey is a data-driven GM and an engaging Twitter presence whose vibrant personality has an irreverent flair. He’s candid enough to compare being an NBA general manager to being a gynecologist (“You never get tired of it”) and publicly deride prominent media personalities for questioning his philosophies (see: Barkley, Charles). Last week, perhaps for kicks, he claimed his Rockets can beat any team in a seven-game series.

So when Morey said “If James Harden weren’t on our team, we’d be nowhere,” as the primary reason his hirsute star player should be named Most Valuable Player, it wasn’t on the greatest hits of Morey-isms. His simplistic reasoning was, however, quite unlike Daryl Morey. Inherent bias aside, Morey has staked his reputation as one of the game’s most progressive general managers because of his aggressive roster reconstructions and acute data crunching. Claiming Harden should win MVP for being the primary arbiter for his team’s 53 wins wasn’t just trivializing the ethos of the award, it was an indirect indictment of himself.

Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry is this year’s NBA MVP. The race shouldn’t be close. To believe that requires a hearty embrace of the analytical whirlwind consuming the NBA – on another day, we’ll discuss Sam Hinkie’s Philadelphia 76ers – with a healthy dose of skepticism of how those stats are manipulated. But above all, anointing Harden the top player ahead of Curry betrays Morey’s beloved metrics.

The Warriors sit at 63-15 with a 35-2 home record, arguably the most dominant NBA regular season since the 1996 Chicago Bulls finished 72-10. (To all you weary Lakers fans, go ahead and make your case.) Along with a stunning average margin of victory of 10.2 points (the Spurs rank second at 6.4), the Warriors entered last weekend riding a 12-game winning streak with nine of those wins coming by 13 points or more. Most of those have come with their star players (Curry, Klay Thompson) resting in the fourth quarter. If the games aren’t won by halftime, they’re won in the third quarter, and Curry is the engine behind their offensive brilliance.

If you prefer to keep your head out of the data sheet and fixed on the television, Curry offers plenty of MVP credentials. He bombs threes from across the Bay, his dribbling skills appear to be honed from sorcery, and his no-look passes recall the likes Isiah Thomas and Magic Johnson. He’s Wayne Gretzky without the skates. I’d link to his highlights, but the YouTube rabbit hole that awaits would keep you from finishing the article.

Take this humiliation of Los Angeles Clippers’ star Chris Paul on Monday night.

Stephen Curry and the clip that launched a thousand memes.

Even Paul was impressed enough to post one of the resulting memes on his own Instagram.

Tune into any Warriors game in the first half and notice opposing defenses try to surround Curry at the top of the perimeter, only to leave his teammates open in the corner, on the elbow of the key or in the post. His versatility has helped unlock career-best seasons from budding stars like Thompson, now one of the NBA’s most feared offensive threats, and journeymen like Marresse Speights, who two years ago was unceremoniously released by a Cleveland team that finished 24-58. When Curry has the ball, they have a better chance to score. And he’s already the most feared shooter in the NBA. Curry’s spindly constitution and lateral agility keep defenses permanently on their heels. If they lunge, he’ll bolt by them for a close-range shot. If they sag off, he’ll knock down a three-pointer. Not since Steve Nash’s MVP seasons in Phoenix has a point guard helmed an offense with such fluidity, and more importantly, speed.

Curry is the real MVP. Photograph: AP

Here’s where the argument gets a bit stat-heavy. Be patient. We’ll make it through together.

The Warriors average slightly over 100 possessions per game, the quickest pace in the NBA. Logically, that’s a risky gambit. More possessions offer more opportunities for points as well as turnovers. Under Curry’s direction (predominantly), the Warriors are averaging 19.8 assists per game (tops in the NBA) against 13 turnovers, a staggeringly good ratio eclipsed only by the Clippers, whose offense is guided by an eight-time All-Star in Paul. Curry himself is averaging 7.7 per game while reducing his turnover percentage (turnovers per 100 plays) by almost two per game from last season. Thus, Curry is not only distributing the ball to players with a high likelihood of scoring, he’s protecting it better than he has in his career.

Perhaps most shocking is that Curry, sometimes criticized as a weak defender, is a key part of a unit that leads the NBA in defensive rating (measured by points allowed per 100 possessions). Lest you think that’s due to Golden State’s burly interior defenders, the perimeter defenders are holding opponents to 33.6% from three-point range, good for fifth in the NBA. Curry isn’t a defensive liability. And if he still is, then coach Steve Kerr has minimized opponents’ chances to exploit him.

Harden, the only reasonable challenger* to Curry in the MVP race – the Pelicans’ Anthony Davis would be another if not for a midseason injury – has compiled an outstanding season with 10 40-point games, markedly improved defense, decreased turnovers and countless clutch baskets. His dizzying crossover dribble and step-back jumper have established him as one of the game’s finest individual scorers, and his notoriously lazy defense appears to be a bygone criticism, with Houston a top-five team in defensive efficiency. His true shooting percentage (a measure of efficiency that calculates 2-point shots, 3-point shots and free throws) sits at 60.7, his offensive rating (an estimate of how many points the player produces per 100 possessions) sits at 118.5, and his team has won 53 games. These are MVP credentials.

Curry ranks better Harden in all of those categories and more.

For further proof, peek into their shot charts.

Curry’s shot chart indicates proficiency from all spots on the floor. Illustration: StatMuse

Harden’s chart reflects Illustration: Statmuse

Curry is shooting far above league average virtually everywhere on the floor. The only places he isn’t is right around the bucket, where percentages are already high.

So if you seek an abstract, a case to present to your friends, then I offer this: Stephen Curry eclipses James Harden in every relevant offensive statistical category outside of points per game. He makes up for that loss with his passing. He orchestrates the NBA’s superlative offense while aiding the league’s best statistical defense. He is the most exciting player to watch in the NBA, and one of its finest ambassadors. He’s played over 300 fewer minutes than Harden because he’s often controls the first three quarters of the game and allows himself to rest during the fourth. If you think that’s due to Kerr and the Golden State front office’s savvy roster construction, fine; but the offense never reaches this kind of efficiency and dominance without Curry’s presence and direction.

When Kerr was asked about Morey’s hamfisted Harden campaign, the affable coach answered “We have bigger things to worry about.”

Kerr knows he has the league MVP. Now it’s on the voting committee to let Curry hoist the trophy.

* Yes, I ignored Russell Westbrook as an MVP candidate and will continue to do so. No MVP struggles to get his team to the playoffs no matter how many gaudy triple-doubles he has. He’s had a wonderful individual season, but doesn’t come close to affecting his team the way Curry, Harden, Davis or even his injured teammate Kevin Durant does.